Price action on EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart of which is shown) as of Thursday (7/22/2010) has continued its climb after pulling back yesterday to just above 1.2700. As of Thursday morning New York session, price tentatively broke out above resistance at 1.2900 and could now potentially be targeting further upside. Since the long-term low in early June, price action has displayed consistently higher lows and higher highs, and this uptrend accelerated after the late June low was hit. For more technical analysis on EUR/USD, please click here for Thursday’s (7/22/2010) Chart of the Day.
James Chen, CTA, CMT
* For information on my DVD set, High-Probability Trend Following in the Forex Market, please click here.
* For information on my book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley), please click here.
* For information on my new book, Essentials of Technical Analysis for Financial Markets (Wiley), please click here.


USDCAD is forming a triangle pattern on daily chart. Resistance is at the upper boundary of the pattern, now at 1.0605, a clear break above this level will indicate that the uptrend form 0.9930 has resumed, then another rise towards 1.0852 (May 25 high) could be seen. Support is located at the lower boundary of the pattern, now at 1.0321, a clear below this level could bring price towards 1.0000 area.
Daily Forex Forecast
Student’s Question:
I just cannot visualize how a downtrend can have uptrends in it…or downtrends in an uptrend for that matter. It does not make sense to me.
USDCAD trades in a narrow range between 1.0498 and 1.0581. The price action in the range is more likely consolidation of uptrend from 1.0276. One more rise towards 1.0676 key resistance is still possible later today, and pullback would more likely be seen before breaking above this level. Key support is now at 1.0498, a breakdown below this level will indicate that a cycle top has been formed on 4-hour chart and the rise from 1.0276 is complete, then another fall towards 1.0000 could be seen.
Daily Forex Analysis
GBPUSD broke above the falling price channel on daily chart and is facing 1.5522 key resistance. Minor consolidation would more likely be seen next week before breaking above this level and the trading range would be within 1.4940-1.5470. However, another rise towards 1.5522 key resistance is still possible after consolidation, and a break above this level will indicate that the long term downtrend from from 1.7042 has completed at 1.4230 already, then the following uptrend could bring price to 1.8000 area.
For long term analysis, GBPUSD might be forming a cycle bottom at 1.4230 level on weekly chart. Key resistance is at 1.5522, a break above this level is needed to confirm the cycle bottom.
Weekly Forex Analysis