From these levels (currently 1.3345), while it holds below the trendline resistance, it makes sense to be looking for selling opportunities. I would be willing to sell if I were to get a very strong sell setup after the trendline gets tested, but I am anticipating a break in the trendline, and for the bulls to take over for a while. For a buy setup I am watching for a daily close above the trendline, preferably above the 1.3430 level. I am tentatively considering 1.3230 for a stop, and my target for profit is 1.3720.
The Eurcad buyt setup is still not ready for entry: http://www.winnersedgetrading.com/sw...tunity-eurcad/
If you are interested in trading these setups with me, it is a good idea to follow me on twitter, since I am able to give quick updates there, and you will be able to get them instantly.
When trading always use a stop loss and calculate the proper risk management for your account. This analysis aims at providing assistance to the forex trading community here at Winners Edge Trading, thereby helping them to make informed trading decisions.
Other useful blogs:
Forex Crunch: Want To Know Why You Keep Losing Trades? .Look In The Mirror
The GeekKnows- Daily commentary on eurusd
One other free trading tool I recommend is Currensee . It can be a useful tool to be able to see how other professional traders are doing.
In the US, Final GDP expected to maintain 3.0% from the previous quarter reflecting a deceleration in the market. The Final GDP Price Index also rebounds at 1.0% as in the previous quarter.
More in the US, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment is likely to remain 75.5% following the rise in May and the Revised UoM Inflation Expectations is about to maintain the reduction in May reaching 2.7%.
For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.
Canada will chair the G-8 Summit, which will be held in Ontarios Muskoka region. Immediately afterward, Canada will host the G-20 Summit, which will take place in Toronto. The leaders of the worlds most industrialized countries gather annually at the G-8 summits to discuss a broad range of issues, such as fiscal and monetary policy coordination and international development. Industrialized and leading emerging countries also meet regularly at G-20 meetings, which have become an important international forum to advance economic cooperation. The honorable Peter Van Loan, Minister of International Trade, calls for increased focus on free and open trade, pointing to the Canada-United States relationship as an example of a free trade success story.
In Europe, German Import Prices expected to drop 1.0% from the unexpected rise of 2.0% in May.
For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs latest analysis.
In Switzerland, Swiss National Bank Quarterly Bulletin Monetary policy report and The economic situation from the vantage point of the delegates for regional economic relations, and is used by the Governing Board for the quarterly assessment. It has a mild affect on the market since much of the information is released 2 weeks earlier in the Monetary Policy Assessment.
Thats it for today. Happy forex trading!
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has apparently admitted (temporary) defeat in its battle to hold down the value of the Franc. ” ‘The SNB has reached its limits and if the market wants to see a franc at 1.35 versus the euro, they won’t be able to stop it.’ ” The markets have won. The SNB has lost.
Still, the SNB should be applauded for its efforts. As you can see from the chart above, it managed to keep the Franc from rising above €1.50 (its so-called line in the sand) for the better part of 2009. Furthermore, by most accounts, it managed to slow the Franc’s unavoidable descent against the Euro in 2010. While the Dollar has appreciated more than 15% against the Euro, the Franc has a risen by a more modest 10%. ” ‘Without that €90 billion [intervention], it’s fair to say that the euro would be closer to $1.10,’ ” argued one analyst. In fact, as recently as May 18, the SNB manifested its power in the form of 1-day, 2% decline in the Franc, its sharpest fall in more than a year.
Overall, the SNB has spent more than $200 Billion over the last 12 months, including $73 Billion in the month of May alone. ” ‘To put the figures in perspective, there have been only two months when China, the world’s largest holder of forex reserves with $2,249bn in assets, saw its reserves increase more.’ ” The SNB now claims the world’s 7th largest foreign exchange reserves, ahead of the perennial interveners of Brazil in Hong Kong, the latter of whose currency is pegged against the Dollar.
While the SNB can take some credit for halting the decline in the Franc, it was ultimately done in by factors beyond its control, namely the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis and consequent surge in risk aversion. At this point the forces that the SNB is battling against are too large to be contained: “We’re talking about a massive euro crisis, so no single central bank can prop it up on its own,” summarized one trader. As a result, the Franc is now rising to a fresh record high against the Euro nearly every trading session.
Still, the SNB remains committed to rhetorical intervention. “The central bank has a ‘clear aim‘ to maintain price stability and this is what guides its policy actions, SNB President Philipp Hildebrand said…The bank will act in a ‘decisive manner if needed.’ ” That means that if economic growth slows and/or deflation sets it, it may have to restart the printing presses. Given that its economy is slated to grow at a solid 1.5% this year, unemployment is a meager 3.8%, and the threat of inflation has largely abated. On the other hand, the prospect of a drawn-out crisis in the EU means the Franc will probably continue to appreciate – without help from the Central Bank: ” ‘The SNB may continue to intervene in the currency markets until 2020,’ ” declared the head of forex research for UBS.
The implications for currency markets are interesting. Not only has the SNB prevented the Euro from falling too fast against the Franc, but it may also have prevented it from falling too quickly against other currencies. ” ‘To suggest that the SNB has been the savior of the euro is too much. But one could imagine that if the euro starts to decline again, the market may blame the fact that the SNB isn’t buying,’ ” said a currency strategist from Standard Bank.
This episode is also a testament to the limits of intervention. It has always been clear (to this blogger, at least) that intervention is futile in the long-term. The best that a Central Bank can hope for is to stall a particular outcome long enough in order to achieve a certain short-term policy aim. When enough momentum coalesces behind a (floating) currency, there is nothing that a Central Bank can do to stop it from moving to the rate that investors collectively deem it to be worth.
Biggest % losers: USD/CHF down 1.62%, GBP/CHF, EUR/CHF on CHF strength.
Gold $1,245 climbing once again!
Oil $77.20
CHF Interest Rates at 0.25% as expected.
CHF Swiss National Bank says they will act as needed if CHF gains threaten deflation: http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame...as_Needed.html
USD Core CPI m/m in line at 0.1%. Last time was 0.0%.
USD CPI m/m in line at -0.2%. Last time was -0.1%.
Unemployment Claims worse at 472k vs. 452k expected and 460k last time.
USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index comes out at 10am EST.
Sean Hyman
DailyFX Forum Moderator
The Swiss National Bank kept their key overnight borrowing costs at 0.25 percent in June. Policy makers accompanied the rate decision by suggesting that risks to the Swiss economy remain weighted to the downside on the back of a property market bubble amid advances in mortgage lending, while the central bank has provided excess liquidity in the markets by the use of currency interventions during the past 15 months.
