Welcome to the FXReturn.com London Forex Market Call for July 21st.,2010. GBP/USD: Closes near the highs of the session as the market rejects anything below the 1.5200 region. 1.5307 is a major level off the 4 hour chart. If the market can pierce this level, a rally to 1.5469 would ensue. Consecutive closes below 1.5238 will encourage selling down to 1.4946. Stochastics have entered the sell zone suggesting that the 1.5307 level will fail and a sell off would prevail | GOLD: Closes on the highs of the session and above pivot resistance at 1184.1. The market needs to close above 1200 for traders that are bullish to re-enter on the long side. A failure at the 1200 region will send the market down to 1165.4 | Daily FX Forum visitors can sign up for our FREE Live Interactive Webinars and Live Trading Room at FXReturn.com as well as review our latest TON: Trade On News Plans for the upcoming week. Please click the following link to view our daily research: LondonMarketCall
Created with Camtasia Studio 5Welcome to the FXReturn.com London Forex Market Call for July 8th.,2010. GBP/USD: Closes on the highs of the session as the market fails to penetrate the 1.5227 level. If the Market pierces 1.5227 that would signal more buying into the 1.5380 area. The 10 day average is acting like trendline support from the earlier part of June. If the market decides to close below 1.5081, that would signal more selling down to 1.4767. Stochastics remain overbought but have not crossed through the 80 sell zone | GOLD: Reverses yesterdays sell off and struggles to trade above the 1200 handle. 1215.8 is resistance. A close above this level will signal a rally up to 1225.9. If the 1200 level fails. look for the market to sell off down to pivot support at 1165.4. Technicals are oversold | Daily FX Forum visitors can sign up for our FREE Live Interactive Webinars and Live Trading Room at FXReturn.com as well as review our latest TON: Trade On News Plans for the upcoming week. Please click the following link to view our daily
research: LondonMarketCall
Created with Camtasia Studio 5Welcome to the FXReturn.com London Forex Market Call for July 1st.,2010. GBP/USD: Closes on the lows of the session as the market finds support at the 10 day average. A close below 1.4929 will signal a move down to double bottom support that was formed between February and March at 1.4781 and 1.4796 respectively. Stochastics have crossed in overbought territory but have not cleared the 80 sell zone. If they do, this will indeed give a traditional sell signal. 1.5000 is resistance | GOLD: Closes mid-range on the session with an upside bias as the market trades above the 10 day average at 1239.7 for most of the session. Stochastics are still pointing lower suggesting a market pull back down to 1225.9. A close below 1225.9 will signal a sell off down to 1196.4. 1249-1251.9 is resistance | Daily FX Forum visitors can sign up for our FREE Live Interactive Webinars and Live Trading Room at FXReturn.com as well as review our latest TON:
Trade On News Plans for the upcoming week. Please click the following link to view our daily
research: LondonMarketCall
Created with Camtasia Studio 5Welcome to the FXReturn.com London Forex Market Call for April 20th, 2010. GBP/USD: Reverses the early sell-off of a 130 point intraday trading range to close on the highs of the session. 1.5380 is a pivotal area of resistance. A close above this level will signal an upward move to 1.5520-1.5532. A close above 1.5532 will signal a long term move to 1.5780. Technicals have entered the sell zone suggesting that there could be more downside to 1.5127 | GOLD: Finds much needed support for the bulls at 1125.00. A close above 1150 will signal a move to 1169.50 then the all time high at 1125.9. A close below 1125.00 will signal a move back down to 1100.00 | Daily FX Forum visitors can sign up for our FREE Live Interactive Webinars and Live Trading Room at FXReturn.com. Please click the following link to view our daily research:LondonMarketCall:
Created with CamtasiaStudio 5My favorite long term forex trade is short GBP/AUD. From both a technical and fundamental basis, the currency should be headed lower.
Based upon the recent trend of economic data including the highest level of unemployment in 12 years and the sharpest decline in retail sales since Feb 2009, the Bank of England should keep monetary policy easy for as long as possible. According to comments this morning, they seem to agree. BoE officials said their decision to leave their Quantitative Easing program unchanged was a close one - in fact some members actually favored increasing the program. Of all the major central banks, the BoE is the only one still considering more rather than less monetary stimulus and for that reason, the GBP should be headed lower. In fact, I think that the GBP will probably be the worst performing currency this quarter.
In contrast, the Reserve Bank of Australia intends to raise interest rates again in the near future. Last night’s comments from RBA Governor Battelino could not be more hawkish. He said the mining boom that is currently underway could last beyond 2020 and the boom is expected to lift investment and terms of trade more than in the past. He also believes that the growth potential of China and India suggests that the demand boom will also last longer. Therefore monetary policy needs to be extremely disciplined at this time because every past mining boom has fueled inflation. As a result, the rise in the Australian dollar is important because it helps to contain inflation. In other words, not only will the RBA raise interest rates again but they also want the Aussie to rise.
On a technical basis, moving averages are in perfect order meaning that the 10-day SMA is below the 20 which is below the 50 and 100. This usually foreshadows a new and major trend in a currency. On a shorter term basis, the GBPUSD is also trading deep within the Sell Zone territory according to my Bollinger Bands - all of which points to further losses:
