Euro rallies on EU's formalized offer of aid to Greece
The euro strengthened across the board on Monday after EU offered Greece a rescue package worth as much as 45 billion euros ($61 billions) at below-market interest rates which would potentially reduce Greece's default risk. However, gains were trimmed on continuing uncertainty associated with the bailout package.
The single currency opened sharply higher on Monday and surged to 1.3692 in Asian mid-day as EU's ministers approved a 30 billion euros ($40.5 billion) aid package of loans with at least 15 billion euros from the International Monetary Fund on Sunday. However, euro later retreated to 1.3566 on profit taking. In other news, ECB board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said the eurozone's 30 billion euros rescue package for Greece would help the single currency and avoid what happened in the U.S. with Lehman. Bini Smaghi also said the EU council will work on reform to reinforce governance of public finances and structural divergences.
Although the greenback briefly dipped to 92.90 versus the Japanese yen, active cross selling in yen on returned risk appetite lifted the pair to 93.61 in European mid-day before retreating to 93.14 in NY morning and the pair moved narrowly in NY afternoon. In other news, U.S. Fed's budget in March came in at -65.4 billion versus forecast of -62.0 billion and the previous reading of -191.59 billion.
The British pound rallied by 'default' in tandem with gap-up opening in euro and hit an intra-day high of 1.5486. However, cable erased early gains and fell to 1.5353 in NY mid-day as U.K.'s budget deficit was 11.8 percent of GDP in the past fiscal year, near to Greeces deficit of 12.9 percent of GDP last year and this fueled speculation that Britains debt burden will pressure the nations currency.
Economic data to be released on Tuesday include: U.K. house prices, BRC retail sales, Trade balance , Japan Domestic CGPI, Germany CPI and HICP, U.S. Trade balance, Export price , Import price, Consumer confidence, Canada Exports, Imports, New housing price index.
http://www.acetraderfx.com
Forced to eat ‘humble pie’ and commit to their future, the EU has stepped up to the plate and pledged debt-burdened Greece a rescue package at below-market interest rates as they try to end this member fiscal crisis and restore confidence in the ailing EUR. The Fitch downgrading last week certainly sped up this rescue process. The EU maneuver has eaten into the -5.7% currency depreciation year-to-date with the ‘buck’. Greece was offered 30b euro’s in 3-year loans at 5%, which is less than the current 3-year Greek yield of 6.98%. Another 15b would come from the IMF. Much will depend on Greece’s ability to raise their ‘own’ capital this week on the open market. With the EU backing making the process more palatable for investors, any struggle in raising the required 1.2b euros will again question investor confidence in the country’s ability to repay its debts and pressurize the EUR.
The US$ is weaker in the O/N trading session. Currently it is lower against 10 of the 16 most actively traded currencies in a ‘volatile’ trading range.
It was only to be expected that the EUR would gather strength after an official EU aid package was presented. As various analysts have pointed out, this Greek bailout really is a Euro bailout, at least for the short term. We all know that the key ingredient for the EUR weakness, a potential default of Greece, and the EU finance minister’s actions over the weekend has temporarily averted this ‘chaos’. Given that the market is short EUR’s and the various crosses, what price actions we have witnessed makes perfect sense. However, now that weaker members will also have to ‘shoulder the potential burden’, this new found trend is questionable. Will the EU support continue to keep pushing Greece to solve its own legacy problems? Investors do not want the symptoms to be just treated.
The USD$ is lower against the EUR +0.11%, GBP +0.12% and higher against CHF -0.19 % and JPY -0.44%. The commodity currencies are weaker this morning, CAD -0.47% and AUD -0.80%. Despite not meeting consensus for the Canadian employment report on Friday (+17.9k vs. +25k), the upward trend remains somewhat unflappable for a third-consecutive monthly gain. The unemployment rate remained at +8.2%. Digging deeper, full-time employment actually fell by -14.2k while part-time jobs gained by +32.2k. The number of employees increased by +21.9k and self-employment fell by -4k. Interestingly, the average hourly wage growth slowed to -2.2%, y/y. The loonie again is staring at a ‘premium’ to its southern neighbor. Commodities, equities and every piece of economic data cannot trip up the currency’s momentum presently. Year-to-date the loonie has appreciated just over +5% vs. the greenback, making it the second strongest currency move after the MXN. Everything the global economies want, Canada has it. Now that the EU has acted, risk premium is being priced out and should benefit growth currencies. With Canadian growth rates coming in stronger than Governor Carney and his policy makers expected, has futures traders pricing in a rate hike sooner than official rhetoric is suggesting. USD rallies remain shallow and are met with strong resistance. The trend remains your friend.
The AUD was the second worst performer amongst the 16-most traded currencies last night. It fell in the O/N session, erasing earlier gains, as a government report showed the housing market may weaken even further. Home-loan approvals fell more than Capital Markets expected (-1.8% vs. -1%), signaling that the Governor Stevens five rate hikes (4.50%) may be curbing demand. The market should expect short term sentiment to remain somewhat negative until the interest rate date filtrates through the consumer confidence reports. Bigger picture, fundamental data is very strong and the RBA still require a gradual tightening process to bring borrowing costs ‘closer to average’. Analysts expect the Cbank to raise their policy rate up to +5.0% in the 1st Q of next year. This will only further boost the currency’s reputation and speculator buying on dips is expected to dominate. Governor Stevens said that ‘it was a further step in returning yields to average levels’. Last week’s Cbank communiqué said that ‘interest rates to most borrowers nonetheless have been somewhat lower than average’, and ‘with growth likely to be around trend and inflation close to target over the coming year, it is appropriate for interest rates to be closer to average’. The market should expect the AUD to remain better bid on any pull backs (0.9292).
Crude is higher in the O/N session ($85.40 up +48c). Crude and gas were pressurized Friday on speculation that US stockpiles of the fuel will surge as refineries bolster processing rates. Commodities this morning, by default, have found support from the ‘buck’ backing off. Last week’s EIA report revealed that US plants operated at +84.5% of capacity (the highest level in 6-months). At one point, oil managed to print an 18-month intraday high following reports that showed growth in US and service industries. Speculators expect economic growth will continue and demand is going to increase, however, inventory levels are still robust. If global demand does not pick up, then technically, the commodity is going to find it difficult to maintain traction. Last week supplies of crude rose +1.98m barrels to +356.2m, pushing inventories +7.1% higher than the 5-year average. It was the 10th- consecutive gain, the longest stretch of weekly increases in 6-years. In reality, commodity gains are a crowded trade. Investors should heed the warning signs, a weak dollar, robust equity prices and little demand for the ‘black-stuff’, is certainly a recipe for backwardation and making it difficult for technical analysts to achieve a $90 print in the short term.
The yellow metal surged again on Friday, reaching a 4-month high, as investors sought sanctuary in the commodity as an alternative to holding currencies. Again this morning the commodity remains robust as the dollar wilts. The market had expected some profit taking after the announcement of an affordable EU loan extension to Greece at the weekend. All month, stronger fundamentals have given commodities a boost and adding an insurance premium gave further support. Now that some of the unknown variable may be taken out, investors again will want to take profit and add some risk to their portfolios. Global equities are expected to push higher as economic reports exceed most analysts’ expectations. Speculators are itching to take cash off the side lines and put it to work. Gold has been used as a conduit for a currency of choice. Up until this weekend Greece has been the unknown variable, downgrades and fear of defaults had investors seeking an alternative to an ‘on going weakening’ of the EUR and low interest rates. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to the EU announcement. Are there still fears of contagion spreading amongst the weaker member states in the EU? ($1,164)
The Nikkei closed at 11,251 up +48. The DAX index in Europe was at 6,260 up +11; the FTSE (UK) currently is 5,776 up +6. The early call for the open of key US indices is higher. The US 10-year eased 2bp on Friday (3.88%) and has backed up 3bp in the O/N session (3.91%). Last week Treasury prices rose after 10-year product encroached on 4%, attracting demand for the $21b worth of new benchmark offered by the US government. The short end of the curve garnered support from Bernanke’s comments that ‘joblessness, foreclosures and weak lending are dragging on the recovery’. With $82b’s worth of total issues up for grabs, it was only natural for traders to cheapen the curve to increase its attractiveness. Now that the EU has shown its hand this weekend with respect to Greece’s loans, how much of the insurance premium will be priced out of Government bonds? US futures show that there is a +71% chance that the Fed will keep the target lending rate unchanged through Aug., up from a +58% chance a month ago.
The potential for a showdown between the International Monetary Fund and the European Union took a leap forward today as the IMF said that any rescue package for Greece involving the IMF, would “be an IMF program decided by the IMF”. This is in stark contrast to earlier comments from the EU which last week approved a plan including funds from the IMF, as well as EU-backed loans based on the prevailing market interest rates. The EU also made it clear that the European Union and not the IMF, would maintain control over the process.
Source: Bloomberg
I can’t remember how long it’s been since I was hyping the Yen carry trade (though a browsing of the ForexBlog archives indicates 2 years). Upon the outset of the credit crisis, forex markets went haywire, and one of the main “beneficiaries” was the Yen, which soared as carry trades were unwound. Now, however, a similar set of circumstances that made the Yen carry trade attractive from 2006-2008 have re-appeared, and it looks like the trade could be on the verge of making a big comeback.
Practitioners of the carry trade understand that it has a few pre-conditions. The first is low interest rates. In this case, the benchmark Japanese interest rate is only .1%. While that would have meant something a few years ago, however, it no longer counts for much, since benchmark rates in other industrialized countries are just as low. Where Japan has the edge is in market interest rates. Long-term rates have historically been well below the global average, and short-term rates are finally following suit after a 3-year hiatus. In fact, for the first time since August, the 3-month Japanese LIBOR rate – a lending benchmark – fell below its US counterpart: “On Thursday, the yen Libor JPY3MFSR= was fixed at 0.25063 percent — its lowest level since May 2006 — and the dollar USD3MFSR= rate at 0.25219 percent.” In short, the Japanese Yen is once again the cheapest currency in the world to borrow.
In addition, interest rates in Japan will probably remain low for the immediate future, as the Bank of Japan is actually looking to make its monetary policy even more accommodative (I didn’t think this was possible with a benchmark rate of only .1%!), in order to further stimulate the economy and alleviate the risk of deflation. This contrasts with Central Banks in other countries, which are already contemplating interest rate hikes.
The second condition is low volatility. ” ‘Realized trading vols has not been so low for many years.’ For example, three-month implied vols in the euro have slipped from a 25-plus high at the peak of the subprime crisis to levels around 10.68 currently…’As volatility goes down,’ the FX market tends to move toward a ‘classic carry trade environment.’ ” Low volatility is important because it enables investors to make low-risk bets on interest rate differentials without worrying too much about currency fluctuation. However, it doesn’t hurt that aversion to risk is also trending lower, such that investors can borrow in Yen to make higher-risk bets. According to the Bank of International Settlements, “The carry-to-risk ratios, a measure of the appeal of carry trades, have ‘been steadily rising over the past 14 years, consistent with an increasing attractiveness of the yen-funded carry trades for Australia and New Zealand.’ ”
The pickup in risk aversion – as a result of the Greek debt crisis – may have delayed the return of the Yen carry trade. In January, volatility rose slightly and the Yen rallied as the safe-haven mentality set in. Personally, I find this somewhat ironic, since Japan’s debt problems are even more pronounced, and unlike Greece, it can’t count on a bailout from Greece if things really get rough. Still, the markets work in strange ways, and the fact that the Yen has benefited from the crisis is probably due to the fact that traders can’t short all currencies simultaneously.
The third condition is really an outgrowth of the first two: belief that the funding currency will remain stable, or even decline. In this regard, the Yen is still hovering near an all-time high against the US Dollar, and given the confluence of bearish economic and political factors, it would seem to ne headed downward irrespective of the carry trade. For those looking for specific reasons to short the Yen, there are plenty from which to choose: low economic growth, dismal performance in finance markets, high public debt, dwindling savings and an upcoming retirement boom. As one analyst argued, “Tokyo is due to announce its medium-term fiscal plans in June. ‘Either this will mark the start of a prolonged period of fiscal restraint, weakening the economy again and requiring further monetary loosening, or the plans will lack credibility, in which case Japan’s financial markets would be hit hard. In either scenario, the yen looks vulnerable.’ ”
I don’t mean to get excited, but it’s hard to state a better case in favor of an imminent return of the Yen carry trade.
The U.S. dollar was pushed to a 15-month low (on a trade weighted basis) through the combination of a consistently neutral policy stance from the Federal Reserve, record low market interest rates, a broad rise in risk appetite, and emboldened calls for diversifying reserves away from the world’s most liquid currency. Some of these factors will prove temporary; but others are lasting concerns for the greenback. Knowing which dynamic holds which time frame and knowing which holds more bearing for the future will help trace out a fundamental road map for the dollar through what promises to be an active six months.
