The pair has been consolidating over the past 6 weeks while forming a chart pattern that looks to break to the downside in a continuation with the long term trend.
Following the sharp deprecation in the price of the pair during the month of May, the GBP/JPY has consolidated its losses and has formed an ascending triangle pattern.
A halt to the trend can be verified by the flat 20-day exponential moving average. Also a significant drop off in volatility is shown by the decrease in the Average True Range (14). A tightening of the daily chart’s Bollinger Bands confirms the reduced volatility in the pair.
Because the long term trend is to the downside, it is assumed that a breakout will be in this direction. However, traders are not limited to one direction in this trade setup. By placing a stop on the inside of the triangle to guard against a false breakout, losses can be minimized should the breakout fail to materialize. Therefore, a trade setup can be in either direction.
A breakout to the upside would target the resistance level at 138.25, followed by the significant resistance line of 139.25 and a long term target at 140.50, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the downward trend that began in August of 2009.
If the long term trend continues and the pair breaks out of the triangle to the downside, the first target would be the support at 131.30, followed by the bottom of the downward trend at 126.75.
Filed under ForexYard, Latest FX Articles · Tagged with ascending triangle, average true range, exponential moving average, false breakout, term target
EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, slipped above the bearish channel but whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 1.2152 and closed at 1.2160. On h4 chart below we can see that this is the case of a false breakout which usually trigger a significant bearish pressure especially if price able to move consistently below 1.2150 support area targeting 1.2111 before testing 1.2000. Immediate resistance at 1.2230/50 area. Break above that area could trigger another upside pullback testing 1.2325/50 region. The major bearish scenario pass another test and seems ready to challenge psychological strong support area.
GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD failed to continue its bullish correction yesterday, bottomed at 1.4587 and closed at 1.4612 after unable to stay consistently above 1.4720. On h4 chart below we can see price is now struggling around the bullish channel lower line indicating critical technical phase. A clear break below the bullish channel could be seen as the end of the bullish correction phase and resume its major bearish scenario at least testing 1.4450 area. However note that as long as the bullish channel hold, the upside correction scenario remains intact. Immediate resistance at 1.4720. Break above that area should keep the bullish correction scenario intact testing 1.4865 region.
USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 92.80 and closed at 92.70. The bias remains bullish in nearest term especially if price able to move consistently above 93.00 area targeting 94.00/20 region. Immediate support at 92.50 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback testing 92.00 area but I still prefer a bullish scenario with buy on dips strategy at this phase.
USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF made another boring movement yesterday. I have no further comments about this boring pair and still waiting for a break from the range area before open any position. A clear break below 1.1445 could be seen a a serious threat to the bullish scenario testing at least 1.1300 area. On the other hand, another upside attempt above 1.1695 should keep the major bullish scenario intact at least testing 1.1750 region.
Have a great day!
The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, slipped above the bearish channel but whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 1.2152 and closed at 1.2160. On h4 chart below we can see that this is the case of a false breakout which usually trigger a significant bearish pressure especially if price able to move consistently below 1.2150 support area targeting 1.2111 before testing 1.2000. Immediate resistance at 1.2230/50 area. Break above that area could trigger another upside pullback testing 1.2325/50 region. The major bearish scenario pass another test and seems ready to challenge psychological strong support area.
GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD failed to continue its bullish correction yesterday, bottomed at 1.4587 and closed at 1.4612 after unable to stay consistently above 1.4720. On h4 chart below we can see price is now struggling around the bullish channel lower line indicating critical technical phase. A clear break below the bullish channel could be seen as the end of the bullish correction phase and resume its major bearish scenario at least testing 1.4450 area. However note that as long as the bullish channel hold, the upside correction scenario remains intact. Immediate resistance at 1.4720. Break above that area should keep the bullish correction scenario intact testing 1.4865 region.
USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 92.80 and closed at 92.70. The bias remains bullish in nearest term especially if price able to move consistently above 93.00 area targeting 94.00/20 region. Immediate support at 92.50 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback testing 92.00 area but I still prefer a bullish scenario with buy on dips strategy at this phase.
USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF made another boring movement yesterday. I have no further comments about this boring pair and still waiting for a break from the range area before open any position. A clear break below 1.1445 could be seen a a serious threat to the bullish scenario testing at least 1.1300 area. On the other hand, another upside attempt above 1.1695 should keep the major bullish scenario intact at least testing 1.1750 region.
Have a great day!
EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD didn't make significant movement yesterday, move in range area of 1.3115 1.3265 in a volatile market. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the main scenario should remain to the downside. Immediate resistance at 1.3267 area. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.1.3300/30 region. Initial support at 1.3150. Break below that area should maintain the intra-day bearish bias testing 1.3100 1.3080 area.
GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD attempted to push lower yesterday after break below the range area (of 1.5520 1.5200), bottomed at 1.5125 but closed higher at 1.5208. The pair is in transition phase where bullish outlook is in serious threat and bearish bias seems ready to take control. Earlier today in Asian session price keep moving lower below 1.5200 indicating the downside pressure is still there. Immediate support at 1.5135/28 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.5060 1.5000 region. On the upside, consistent move above 1.5200 should lead us into a no trading zone as direction would become unclear.
USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 94.31 and closed at 94.01. The major bullish outlook since the bullish running from 84.82 remains intact but the pair has been moving in a range area of 94.70 92.00 for more than 4 weeks now without a clear direction. I will keep stay away from this tricky pair for now. Immediate support at 93.30. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 93.00 92.50 area. Initial resistance at 94.70. Break above that area should confirm the bullish continuation scenario targeting 95.50 96.70 region.
USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF slipped above 1.0888 yesterday, but failed to consistently move above that area so far. The bias is neutral in nearest term but this fact could produce a false breakout scenario which could trigger bearish pressure especially if price break below 1.0770 area testing 1.0700 region. Immediate resistance at 1.0923 (yesterday's high). Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.1000 region.
Have a great day!
The EURUSD didn't make significant movement yesterday, move in range area of 1.3115 1.3265 in a volatile market. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the main scenario should remain to the downside. Immediate resistance at 1.3267 area. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.1.3300/30 region. Initial support at 1.3150. Break below that area should maintain the intra-day bearish bias testing 1.3100 1.3080 area.
GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD attempted to push lower yesterday after break below the range area (of 1.5520 1.5200), bottomed at 1.5125 but closed higher at 1.5208. The pair is in transition phase where bullish outlook is in serious threat and bearish bias seems ready to take control. Earlier today in Asian session price keep moving lower below 1.5200 indicating the downside pressure is still there. Immediate support at 1.5135/28 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.5060 1.5000 region. On the upside, consistent move above 1.5200 should lead us into a no trading zone as direction would become unclear.
USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 94.31 and closed at 94.01. The major bullish outlook since the bullish running from 84.82 remains intact but the pair has been moving in a range area of 94.70 92.00 for more than 4 weeks now without a clear direction. I will keep stay away from this tricky pair for now. Immediate support at 93.30. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 93.00 92.50 area. Initial resistance at 94.70. Break above that area should confirm the bullish continuation scenario targeting 95.50 96.70 region.
USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF slipped above 1.0888 yesterday, but failed to consistently move above that area so far. The bias is neutral in nearest term but this fact could produce a false breakout scenario which could trigger bearish pressure especially if price break below 1.0770 area testing 1.0700 region. Immediate resistance at 1.0923 (yesterday's high). Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.1000 region.
Have a great day!
Filed under Latest FX Articles · Tagged with consistent move, false breakout, initial resistance, session price, transition phase
EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.3547 and closed at 1.3508 after positive results of Euro zone unemployment and CPI data. The bias is bullish in nearest term. On daily chart below we can see that price is now ready to test the bearish channel indicating critical technical phase with potential bullish reversal scenario. However, as long as the bearish channel valid, the main trend remains bearish. Trend exist until it's broken. Immediate resistance at 1.3580 1.3600 area. Break above that area could be a serious threat to the bearish outlook at least testing 1.3817 and a beginning of a new bullish phase. Initial support at 1.3530. Break below that area should keep the bearish scenario intact testing 1.3450.
GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD had a significant technical movement yesterday by break above the major bearish channel, confirms the bullish reversal scenario. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 1.5380. Immediate support at 1.5100. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.5000 region and could produce a false breakout scenario which could trigger significant bearish momentum testing 1.4873 area and keep the bearish scenario intact.
USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 93.62 and closed at 93.44. The bias remains bullish in nearest term but we need a clear break above 93.75 to continue further bullish momentum testing 95.50 region. Immediate support at 93.10/00 area. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone but the main outlook remains bullish at this phase.
USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, slipped below the major bullish channel indicating critical technical phase with a bearish reversal scenario especially if price able to consistently move below the bullish channel today. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 1.0420. Immediate resistance at 1.0640. Break above that area could be seen as a false breakdown scenario which could trigger significant bullish momentum and keep the bullish scenario intact.
Have a great day!
The EURUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.3547 and closed at 1.3508 after positive results of Euro zone unemployment and CPI data. The bias is bullish in nearest term. On daily chart below we can see that price is now ready to test the bearish channel indicating critical technical phase with potential bullish reversal scenario. However, as long as the bearish channel valid, the main trend remains bearish. Trend exist until it's broken. Immediate resistance at 1.3580 1.3600 area. Break above that area could be a serious threat to the bearish outlook at least testing 1.3817 and a beginning of a new bullish phase. Initial support at 1.3530. Break below that area should keep the bearish scenario intact testing 1.3450.
GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD had a significant technical movement yesterday by break above the major bearish channel, confirms the bullish reversal scenario. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 1.5380. Immediate support at 1.5100. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.5000 region and could produce a false breakout scenario which could trigger significant bearish momentum testing 1.4873 area and keep the bearish scenario intact.
USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 93.62 and closed at 93.44. The bias remains bullish in nearest term but we need a clear break above 93.75 to continue further bullish momentum testing 95.50 region. Immediate support at 93.10/00 area. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone but the main outlook remains bullish at this phase.
USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, slipped below the major bullish channel indicating critical technical phase with a bearish reversal scenario especially if price able to consistently move below the bullish channel today. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 1.0420. Immediate resistance at 1.0640. Break above that area could be seen as a false breakdown scenario which could trigger significant bullish momentum and keep the bullish scenario intact.
Have a great day!
Filed under Latest FX Articles · Tagged with bearish outlook, cpi data, euro zone, false breakout, initial support
EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.3817 but closed lower at 1.3734 and keep moving lower around 1.3720 at the time I wrote this comment. While technical bullish view remains intact as price still move inside the bullish channel after formed a triple top formation, Euro bullishness is limited by hesitation on the Greek rescue package which is so far can't really convince the market and could still weigh on Euro. Immediate support at 1.3670 area. Consistent move below that area should trigger further bearish momentum towards 1.3530 area and could be a serious threat to the bullish reversal scenario. On the upside, break above 1.3850 should trigger further bullish momentum towards 1.4020/50 area.
GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, after break above the bearish channel, topped at 1.5380 but closed lower at 1.5316. The technical bullishness is confirmed but we need a consistent move above 1.5350 area to continue further bullish scenario targeting 1.5530 area. A failure to do so and another move below 1.5200 area could be a serious threat to the bullish scenario, produce a false breakout and trigger significant bearish momentum towards 1.5000 area even further re-testing 1.4779 region.
USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY made another indecisive movement yesterday. Price still able to move inside the bearish channel indicating bearish scenario remains intact but actually still trapped in a range area of 90.80 90.00. We need a clear break on either side to see clearer direction towards 91.50 or 89.50 area. The bearish major scenario still intact as long as price stay below the major trendline resistance (blue). Break below 89.50 could trigger further bearish momentum towards 88.50 while break above 91.50 could be a serious threat to the bearish scenario and potential new bullish phase.
USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was indecisive yesterday, formed a Doji on daily chart. Price attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.0505 but closed higher at 1.0543. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the bearish correction scenario remains intact. Consistent move below 1.0507 area should continue the bearish momentum testing 1.0420 area. However note that as long as price still move inside the major bullish channel, the current bearish momentum should only be seen as a corrective move. Immediate resistance at 1.0600 and 1.0640 area. Break above 1.0640 area could be a serious threat to the bearish correction back to its major bullish direction testing 1.0888 area.
Have a great day!
The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.3817 but closed lower at 1.3734 and keep moving lower around 1.3720 at the time I wrote this comment. While technical bullish view remains intact as price still move inside the bullish channel after formed a triple top formation, Euro bullishness is limited by hesitation on the Greek rescue package which is so far can't really convince the market and could still weigh on Euro. Immediate support at 1.3670 area. Consistent move below that area should trigger further bearish momentum towards 1.3530 area and could be a serious threat to the bullish reversal scenario. On the upside, break above 1.3850 should trigger further bullish momentum towards 1.4020/50 area.
GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, after break above the bearish channel, topped at 1.5380 but closed lower at 1.5316. The technical bullishness is confirmed but we need a consistent move above 1.5350 area to continue further bullish scenario targeting 1.5530 area. A failure to do so and another move below 1.5200 area could be a serious threat to the bullish scenario, produce a false breakout and trigger significant bearish momentum towards 1.5000 area even further re-testing 1.4779 region.
USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY made another indecisive movement yesterday. Price still able to move inside the bearish channel indicating bearish scenario remains intact but actually still trapped in a range area of 90.80 90.00. We need a clear break on either side to see clearer direction towards 91.50 or 89.50 area. The bearish major scenario still intact as long as price stay below the major trendline resistance (blue). Break below 89.50 could trigger further bearish momentum towards 88.50 while break above 91.50 could be a serious threat to the bearish scenario and potential new bullish phase.
USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was indecisive yesterday, formed a Doji on daily chart. Price attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.0505 but closed higher at 1.0543. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the bearish correction scenario remains intact. Consistent move below 1.0507 area should continue the bearish momentum testing 1.0420 area. However note that as long as price still move inside the major bullish channel, the current bearish momentum should only be seen as a corrective move. Immediate resistance at 1.0600 and 1.0640 area. Break above 1.0640 area could be a serious threat to the bearish correction back to its major bullish direction testing 1.0888 area.
Have a great day!
Filed under Latest FX Articles · Tagged with consistent move, Doji, false breakout, formation euro, Usd/Chf
