The British pound has extended its decline against the greenback, and now looks poised to make a clear break below the 50-day moving average, while the EURUSD remains capped by 1.2800. EUR traders will now shift their focus to the ECB rate decision which will be released later this week.

The British pound has extended its decline against the greenback, and now looks poised to make a clear break below the 50-day moving average, while the EURUSD remains capped by 1.2800. EUR traders will now shift their focus to the ECB rate decision which will be released later this week.

EURUSD remains in downtrend from 1.3333, and the bounce from 1.2587 is treated as consolidation of downtrend. Resistance is at the upper border of the falling price channel, as long as the channel resistance holds, downtrend is expected to continue and next target would be at 1.2500 area. However, a clear break above the channel resistance will indicate that a cycle bottom is being formed on 4-hour chart, then further rise towards 1.2921 key resistance could be seen.



Daily Forex Forecast

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday. The bias remains neutral in nearest term but still within a strong technical bullish context. Immediate support remains around 1.3105 area. Break below that area could trigger further downside pressure testing 1.3045/00 region. On the upside we need a consistent move above 1.3200 to continue the bullish scenario testing 1.3260 before targeting 1.3340. We will have US NFP data today. The number is expected to be a good one, forecast around -63K which is about 62K better than the previous (-125K). If the actual number is better than forecast, the pair could continue its bearish correction. On the other hand, if the actual number is worse than expected, price may resume its bullish scenario. But whatever the result, usually market will be very volatile during this data release.



GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD was also volatile but indecisive yesterday. The bias remains neutral in nearest term but still within a strong technical bullish context. Immediate support at 1.5815 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.5735. On the upside we still need a clear break above 1.5966 to continue the bullish scenario testing 1.6000/50 before targeting 1.6150. We will have US NFP data today. The number is expected to be a good one, forecast around -63K which is about 62K better than the previous (-125K). If the actual number is better than forecast, the pair could continue its bearish correction. On the other hand, if the actual number is worse than expected, price may resume its bullish scenario. But whatever the result, usually market will be very volatile during this data release.



USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY had a moderate bearish momentum yesterday. The short term bullish momentum unable to reach 86.87 before bottomed at 85.70 and closed at 85.83. The bias remains neutral in nearest term but the main scenario remains bearish. Price is now struggling around 85.96 support area but we need a consistent move below that area to continue the bearish pressure testing 85.32. Immediate resistance at the minor trendline resistance (blue) and 86.30/45. Break above that area could trigger further upside pullback testing 86.87 before testing the major trendline resistance (white) and 87.30/50 region.



USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF failed to continue its bullish momentum yesterday. The bias is unclear in nearest term and we are in no trade zone now. As you can see on my daily chart below, price has been moving in range area of 1.0675 – 1.0350 since June 2010 after significant bearish momentum indicating consolidation but the main scenario remains bearish. We need a break from that range area to see clearer direction. Aggressive traders may long around 1.0350 or short around 1.0675 with tight stop loss.



Have a great day!
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