The EURUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.2677 and closed at 1.2681. On h4 chart below we can see price is ready to test the trend line support. Break below the trend line support not only could continue the bearish pressure in nearest term but also could be the end of technical bullish correction and activate my bearish mode. CCI in oversold area and heading up on h4 chart so watch out for potential upside correction testing 1.2730 1.2770 resistance area as the trend line support may provide a good support at this phase. On the downside, break below the trend line support could trigger further bearish momentum at least targeting 1.2588 region.
GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday. Price slipped below the trend line support but whipsawed to the upside and now back above the trend line support indicating limited bearish pressure so far. On h1 chart below we can see price is now testing the upper line of the bearish channel. Break above the bearish channel could trigger further upside correction testing 1.5423 (yesterday's high) and the trend line resistance (red) but I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase. Immediate support at 1.5340. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure targeting 1.5250 region.
USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 83.51 but closed higher at 83.83. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 83.35. Break below that area could open the door for further bearish pressure testing 81.77 in longer term view. Immediate resistance at 84.25 (yesterday's high). Break above that area could trigger further upside pressure testing 84.82 and the trend line resistance.
USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF didn't make significant movement yesterday. The major scenario remains bearish but we have a rounding bottom formation indicating potential bearish exhaustion and upside correction especially if price able to move consistently above 1.0130 testing 1.0180 1.0220 region. Immediate support at 1.0065 1.0030.
Have a great day!
A stack of negative fundamentals rose to the surface in unison to pressure the euro; Irish fiscal woes, a drop in German manufacturing data, and European banking system concerns.
Today’s Economic Data Releases:
GBP – Halifax HPI m/m
Expectation: -0.3%. Previous 0.6%.
Housing data for Britain has been weak since the beginning of the economic recession. The trend of a struggling British housing sector should continue and hurt the pound versus the majors.
Support and resistance levels for the GBP/USD are found at 1.5320 and 1.5490.
EUR – German Industrial Production m/m – 10:00 GMT
Expectation: 1.1%. Previous -0.6%.
Yesterday’s disappointing German factory orders may have been a prelude to today’s data release, highlighting the difficult month of August for the global economy.
The EUR/USD has declined for the past two days, pulling back into the symmetrical triangle pattern that had formed. Support is found at the rising lower leg of the triangle pattern at a price of 1.2660 followed by 1.2580.
CAD – Overnight Rate – 13:00 GMT
Expectation: 1.00%. Previous: 0.75%.
The Bank of Canada is expected to slow monetary policy by hiking interest rate by 25 basis points. This data has already been priced into the market, but should the BAC surprise traders by holding interest rates steady at 0.75%, the USD/CAD could rise to its resistance level of 1.0670.
USD – Beige Book – 18:00 GMT
The Fed’s analysis of the markets helps the central bank set policy decisions and interest rate levels. Negative remarks in the Beige Book could spark renewed safe haven buying.
The USD/CHF should target last week’s low of 1.0064.
The break of 84.03 and 83.74 has seen price edge lower to a marginal new low at 83.51. I feel the first half of the day may well see the correction extend a little higher to 84.08 minimum and I tend to prefer a test of the
84.26-39 resistance. Look for a bearish trade set up there. From this area the 83.51 low should be revisited en route 82.71-88 (favored) and at most 82.34-44.
Only a break back above 84.40 would raise the risk of a direct reversal higher that should then extend close to the 85.22 corrective high at least. Expect a reaction from just below there. Breach would imply a retest of the 85.90 high.
Please view the complete analysis on: http://www.fx-forecaster.com/files/T...ecaster109.pdf
For a full description of how to use the analysis please see the Analysis page of my website. The prior day's set ups for potential trading levels highlighted in the report are available on the Daily Forecast page of my web site in the Trader Package review. (+55 pips)
